Difference between revisions of "Team:NYMU-Taipei/Project-Model"

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<div class="fund">
 
<div class="fund">
  
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<h1>Background</h1><hr /><br />
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<h1>Epidemic</h1><hr><br>
  
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<p style="font-size:16px;">Our project is comprised of four parts,  the introduction, part design, prototype, and human practice. Let me introduce some background information regarding our project. The Oriental fruit fly is a serious agricultural pest. It can consume more than 150 types of vegetables and fruits and primarily affects tropical areas. According to research, in 2004, Asia produced 178 million tons of tropical fruits, amounting to 66% of the global production worth US$2.5 billion. Because Asia is mainly a tropical environment, these fruit flies can decimate the agricultural industry. They can cause 90% to 100% yield loss depending on the fruit fly population, locality, variety and season. In other words, the oriental fruit fly poses a great threat to our global food supply as it can destroy most of the global produce.</p>
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<p style="font-size:16px;">
 +
B. dorsalis is a major cause of annual agricultural losses due to oviposition in fruits. Here we introduce our prototype trap and M. anisopliae, our genetically engineered fungi, to address this issue. <br>
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Our model aims to demonstrate that combining our prototype with the fungi can reduce B. dorsalis’ population. We selected the SEIR model, which fits the ideal assumption in epidemiology, and revised the model to make it more practical for our purpose.<br>
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</p>
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<div align="center">
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<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" align="center">
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td style="width:92px;">
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<p>
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Symbol</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:478px;">
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<p>
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Description</p>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td style="width:92px;">
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<p>
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Susceptible</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:478px;">
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<p>
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<em>B. dorsalis</em> is slightly or moderately resistant to&nbsp;<em>M. anisopliae</em></p>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td style="width:92px;">
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<p>
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Exposed</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:478px;">
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<p>
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<em>B. dorsalis</em> is exposed to a low amount of&nbsp;<em>M. anisopliae</em> in our trap; disease will be spread further during mating.</p>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td style="width:92px;">
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<p>
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Infected</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:478px;">
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<p>
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<em>M. anisopliae </em>enters <em>B. dorsalis</em>&rsquo; hemolymph and initiates cell division.</p>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td style="width:92px;">
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<p>
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Death</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:478px;">
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<p>
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<em>B. dorsalis </em>dies from the infection of <em>M. anisopliae</em>.</p>
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</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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<p style="font-size:16px;">
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Based on our assumptions, we developed a set of differential equations that characterizes the nature of epidemic in our model:<br>
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dms/dt=daily_move_in-trap-death_rate*ms<br>
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dfs/dt=daily_move_in-death_rate*fs<br>
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</p>
  
 
<br/>
 
<br/>
  
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        <p style="font-size:16px;">Oriental fruit flies are wreaking havoc worldwide. It accounted for an annual loss of $176 million in California and billions worth of damage in Taiwan. Furthermore, it devastated fruit production in Africa, causing more than 80% of crop damage. As a result, various countries, out of fear, impose trade restrictions and refused imports of produce from Africa, leading to significant economic losses for Africa.</p>
 
  
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<br/>
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<h1>Parameter</h1><hr /><br />
  
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         <p style="font-size:16px;">The ravages of oriental fruit flies are also not limited to tropical areas. This is a global issue. They have plagued approximately 60 countries worldwide and the issue is worsened by international transportation, which can spread the oriental fruit fly eggs. This is why the issue of oriental fruit flies needs to be solved and our project aims to solve this problem.</p>
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         <p style="font-size:16px;">
  
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<br/>
 
  
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        <p style="font-size:16px;">Here are a few traditional solutions to the oriental fruit fly, but each of them are far from perfect.</p>
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<p align="center">
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<strong>Parameter</strong></p>
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<div align="center">
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<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" align="center">
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td style="width:73px;">
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<p>
 +
Type</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:109px;">
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<p>
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Name</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:220px;">
 +
<p>
 +
Meaning (Value)</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:179px;">
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<p>
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Reference</p>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td rowspan="5" style="width:73px;">
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<p>
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Constant</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:109px;">
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<p>
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Mating　rate</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:220px;">
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<p>
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0.8635</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:179px;">
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<p>
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&nbsp;</p>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td style="width:109px;">
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<p>
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daily_capture</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:220px;">
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<p>
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40</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:179px;">
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<p>
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&nbsp;</p>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td style="width:109px;">
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<p>
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daily_move_in</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:220px;">
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<p>
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0</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:179px;">
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<p>
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&nbsp;</p>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td style="width:109px;">
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<p>
 +
K</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:220px;">
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<p>
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adult death rate (0.05)</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:179px;">
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<p>
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[1]</p>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td style="width:109px;">
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<p>
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k0</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:220px;">
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<p>
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larval death rate (0.23)</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:179px;">
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<p>
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[2]</p>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td rowspan="7" style="width:73px;">
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<p>
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Variable</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:109px;">
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<p>
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ms</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:220px;">
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<p>
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susceptible male</p>
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</td>
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<td rowspan="7" style="width:179px;">
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<p>
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&nbsp;</p>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td style="width:109px;">
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<p>
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Fs</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:220px;">
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<p>
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susceptible female</p>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td style="width:109px;">
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<p>
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me</p>
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</td>
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<td style="width:220px;">
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<p>
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exposed male</p>
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</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
 +
<td style="width:109px;">
 +
<p>
 +
Fe</p>
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</td>
 +
<td style="width:220px;">
 +
<p>
 +
exposed female</p>
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</td>
 +
</tr>
 +
<tr>
 +
<td style="width:109px;">
 +
<p>
 +
mi</p>
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</td>
 +
<td style="width:220px;">
 +
<p>
 +
infected male</p>
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</td>
 +
</tr>
 +
<tr>
 +
<td style="width:109px;">
 +
<p>
 +
Fi</p>
 +
</td>
 +
<td style="width:220px;">
 +
<p>
 +
infected female</p>
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</td>
 +
</tr>
 +
<tr>
 +
<td style="width:109px;">
 +
<p>
 +
D</p>
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</td>
 +
<td style="width:220px;">
 +
<p>
 +
Death</p>
 +
</td>
 +
</tr>
 +
</tbody>
 +
</table>
 +
</div>
  
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        <p style="font-size:16px;">#1: One of the most effective approach is contraception or male annihilation, which uses high-energy radiation to sterilize the male and in turn prevent reproduction. This is ineffective, however, as wild female flies can differentiate between sterilized males and non-sterilized males.</p>
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<br>
  
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        <p style="font-size:16px;">#2: Another way is baiting, which uses pheromones like methyl eugenol to attract male oriental fruit flies into traps that kill them. This is still ineffective however, as the female fruit flies, being the one capable of reproducing, are the real problem but are unaffected by methyl eugenol. There are other more ways like bagging, spraying pesticides and early harvesting but none of these are perfect solutions.</p>
 
  
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<br/>
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<h1>Result</h1><hr /><br />
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<div class="imageimage1">
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<img src="https://static.igem.org/mediawiki/2016/2/21/T--NYMU-Taipei--model_result.png" height=100% width=100%>
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</div>
  
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        <p style="font-size:16px;">Our project aims to solve the shortcomings of these previous solutions. Our fungi is a biological agent that takes biosafety and environmental conservation into consideration.</p>
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<p style="font-size:16px;">
  
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<br/>
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The graph above shows an initial growth in population due to the attraction of B. dorsalis from the environment. However, the population subsequently drops when infected by M. anisopliae. The results indicate that the use of prototype combined with the fungi yields a 70% decrease in the B. dorsalis population. Thus, we can put our product into practice a few weeks prior to the harvest to minimize crop damage.
  
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        <p style="font-size:16px;">What is Metarhizium anisopliae?</p>
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</p>
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        <p style="font-size:16px;">Metarhizium Anisopliae is an entomogenous fungi, Or a fungi that can act as a parasite and seriously harm them.It can infect over 300 hosts but different strands have highly specific hosts. Because various strains of Metarhizium Anisopliae already exist in soil, it doesn’t alter the environment, making it eco-friendly.</p>
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<br/>
 
<br/>
  
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        <p style="font-size:16px;">M. Anisopliae however, is vulnerable to environmental stress like low humidity, temperature, UV exposure… Etc. Thus, scientists are currently genetically engineering M. Anisopliae to solve these shortcomings. But, because of certain laws and policies that bar GMO products from entering the market, biopesticides using M. Anisopliae is still uncommon.</p>
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<h1>Reference</h1><hr /><br />
  
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<br/>
+
        <p style="font-size:16px;">
 +
 
 +
1.Life History and Demographic Parameters of Three Laboratory-reared Tephritids (Diptera: Tephritidae)<br>
 +
2.Effect of temperature on the development and survival of immature stages of the carambola fruit fly, Bactrocera carambolae, and the Asian papaya fruit fly, Bactrocera papayae, reared on guava diet
 +
</p>
 +
 
 +
     
  
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        <p style="font-size:16px;">Traditionally, biosafety is achieved by selecting strains with low UV tolerance or low heat tolerance to ensure that it dies under uncontrolled environments. This, however, compromises on its virulence and applicability. Thus, our project aims to mitigate these GMO concerns without compromising its virulence and vitality.</p>
 
  
 
</div>
 
</div>

Revision as of 14:04, 10 October 2016








TITLE

Besides the fungal killing switch and the functional prototype that help reduce concerns over GMO

Epidemic


B. dorsalis is a major cause of annual agricultural losses due to oviposition in fruits. Here we introduce our prototype trap and M. anisopliae, our genetically engineered fungi, to address this issue.
Our model aims to demonstrate that combining our prototype with the fungi can reduce B. dorsalis’ population. We selected the SEIR model, which fits the ideal assumption in epidemiology, and revised the model to make it more practical for our purpose.

Symbol

Description

Susceptible

B. dorsalis is slightly or moderately resistant to M. anisopliae

Exposed

B. dorsalis is exposed to a low amount of M. anisopliae in our trap; disease will be spread further during mating.

Infected

M. anisopliae enters B. dorsalis’ hemolymph and initiates cell division.

Death

B. dorsalis dies from the infection of M. anisopliae.

Based on our assumptions, we developed a set of differential equations that characterizes the nature of epidemic in our model:
dms/dt=daily_move_in-trap-death_rate*ms
dfs/dt=daily_move_in-death_rate*fs


Parameter


Parameter

Type

Name

Meaning (Value)

Reference

Constant

Mating　rate

0.8635

 

daily_capture

40

 

daily_move_in

0

 

K

adult death rate (0.05)

[1]

k0

larval death rate (0.23)

[2]

Variable

ms

susceptible male

 

Fs

susceptible female

me

exposed male

Fe

exposed female

mi

infected male

Fi

infected female

D

Death

Result


The graph above shows an initial growth in population due to the attraction of B. dorsalis from the environment. However, the population subsequently drops when infected by M. anisopliae. The results indicate that the use of prototype combined with the fungi yields a 70% decrease in the B. dorsalis population. Thus, we can put our product into practice a few weeks prior to the harvest to minimize crop damage.


Reference


1.Life History and Demographic Parameters of Three Laboratory-reared Tephritids (Diptera: Tephritidae)
2.Effect of temperature on the development and survival of immature stages of the carambola fruit fly, Bactrocera carambolae, and the Asian papaya fruit fly, Bactrocera papayae, reared on guava diet